Recommendations for Every Teams Opening Day Starter
What Every Opening Day Starter should Throw:
Baseball is finally back! Tonight the Giants, Dodgers, Yankees and Nationals will usher in the first of games of the 2020 MLB regular season. Being named the opening day starter is always a nerve-racking experience, but 2020 will come with a new set of challenges. Normally, fans in the stands are loud, proud and hopeful for the upcoming season. In 2020, fans will be hopeful not only to make the playoffs, but hopeful that the pandemic ends or does not impact the 60 game sprint.
Onto the pitches...
I took the last 2 years worth of regular season baseball, broke it down pitch by pitch for every single pitcher in the game. Then, I aggregated each pitchers result by pitch: the number of hits allowed, home runs allowed, times the pitcher allowed a baserunner, number of walks, strikeouts...etc. Basically every single result aggregated up by each pitch type in every possible scenario: home, road, against RH, LH, the first pitch of the bat, any pitch of the at bat, and any conditional. For example, say you're interested in what pitch Max Scherzer should throw against a RH hitter, on the road, after he just threw a slider? Now you know!
Over the past 2 years, Scherzer has been in this exact situation 356 times. Here is the breakdown of pitches he's thrown:
- Changeup: 34 pitches
- Cutter: 6 pitches
- Four Seam: 199 pitches
- Slider: 117 pitches
Far and away, his best pitch to throw (results wise) in this situation is the changeup. Throwing the changeup in this situation has the highest strikeout rate, lowest on base percentage, and he has not given up a hit (since 2018) when following the slider with a changeup on the road against a RH.
Full breakdown below:
Interestingly enough, the changeup is not the pitch he primarily throws. For some reason, he only throws the changeup about 10% of the time and instead relies on his fastball and slider.
The tool is linked here.
Onto the recommendations:
I've gone through every team, identified the opening day starter and found the optimal pitch for them to throw to minimize opponents on base rate on the first pitch. For the best optimization, the tool should also consider the batter type (Left or Right), but not every team has a clear cut lead off man.
It's really interesting to go through the tool and understand that most pitchers really throw 2, maybe 3 pitches most of the time. Or, they throw 2 pitches to RH but throw a completely different 2 pitches to LH.
Team | Starting Pitcher | Home/Road | Pitch Recommendation (Combined) | Against RH | Against LH |
Arizona Diamondbacks | Madison Bumgarner | Road | Changeup | Changeup | Curveball |
Atlanta Braves | Mike Soroka | Road | Four Seam | Four Seam | Changeup |
Baltimore Orioles | Tommy Milone | Road | Curveball | Curveball | Slider |
Boston Red Sox | Nathan Eovaldi | Home | Splitter | Slider | Splitter |
Chicago Cubs | Kyle Hendricks | Home | Changeup | Four Seam | Changeup |
Chicago White Sox | Lucas Giolito | Home | Changeup | Four Seam | Curveball |
Cincinnati Reds | Sonny Gray | Home | Slider | Slider | Changeup |
Cleveland Indians | Shane Bieber | Home | Slider | Knuckle Curve | Slider |
Colorado Rockies | German Marquez | Road | Knuckle Curve | Knuckle Curve | Changeup |
Detroit Tigers | Matthew Boyd | Road | Curveball | Slider | Curveball |
Houston Astros | Justin Verlander | Home | Changeup | Changeup | Changeup |
Kansas City Royals | Danny Duffy | Road | Curveball | Curveball | Slider |
Los Angeles Angels | Andrew Heaney | Road | Curveball | Sinker | Curveball |
Los Angeles Dodgers | Clayton Kershaw | Home | Curveball | Curveball | Curveball |
Miami Marlins | Sandy Alcantara | Road | Curveball | Changeup | Curveball |
Milwaukee Brewers | Brandon Woodruff | Road | Curveball | Two Seam | Curveball |
Minnesota Twins | Jose Berrios | Road | Curveball | Changeup | Curveball |
New York Mets | Jacob deGrom | Home | Changeup | Four Seam | Two Seam |
New York Yankees | Gerrit Cole | Road | Changeup | Slider | Changeup |
Oakland A's | Frankie Montas | Home | Slider | Slider | Sinker |
Philadelphia Phillies | Aaron Nola | Home | Four Seam | Changeup | Four Seam |
Pittsburgh Pirates | Joe Musgrove | Road | Curveball | Curveball | Changeup |
San Diego Padres | Chris Paddack | Home | Curveball | Curveball | Four Seam |
San Fransico Giants | Johnny Cueto | Road | Slider | Changeup | Slider |
Seattle Mariners | Marco Gonzales | Road | Four Seam | Four Seam | Four Seam |
St. Louis Cardinals | Jack Flaherty | Home | Knuckle Curve | Knuckle Curve | Knuckle Curve |
Tampa Bay Rays | Charlie Morton | Home | Sinker | Cutter | Sinker |
Texas Rangers | Lance Lynn | Home | Curveball | Curveball | Curveball |
Toronto Blue Jays | Hyun-Jin Ryu | Road | Curveball | Curveball | Curveball |
Washington Nationals | Max Scherzer | Home | Slider | Slider | Slider |
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